Keep a close eye on current Low Pressure system centered in the Northwest U.S. With this system moving slowly into the Plains, I hope to see a return of moisture to the Central U.S. If low level moisture can work its way north; Ensembles and WRF would indicate possible tornadic supercells. ML Cape values from 1000 J/kg-1500 J/kg are projected across Central-Eastern Kansas, even into SE Nebraska. With very good bulk shear in that area, and a small cap, which will increase instability; storms that fire would develop fast. Dewpoints are projected to be in the low 60's as well. I want to lean towards the possibility of good surface moisture, but even at this time, that would only be a best "possible" scenario. Theoretically, the primary issues that would arrise from this convection would be strong winds and hail, if the surface moisture isn't sufficient enough for tornado development. Not only is the moisture a concern, but a deep Boundary Layer is expected to be present as well. Those two combined could very well limit the threat of tornadoes with these storms.
No matter what, I sure do wish I was chasing; instead of preparing for Finals.
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