Storms have already begun initiation in and near Dallas/Ft. Worth. SPC has progged that area with a High Risk for severe wx. It's with great sympathy that I write this, considering the tornadoes and severe wx that occurred in the region last night. But, if people thought yesterday was bad, today will be worse.
19z surface obs show slight backed winds at the surface, along with dewpoints in the low 70's. There is plenty of instability avalaible, in upwards of 2000 j/kg. The storms are initiating on the instability gradient/Theta-e gradient. These storms went severe in a matter of 5 minutes; and once rooted in the boundary layer, should make a classic right turn. I don't feel that I need to mention the parameters for today, because I will sum them up with one word: "atomic". SRH values are most likely underdone, but I would expect them to approach 600 m^2/s^2, with Effective Bulk Shear at 50+ knots, and with plenty of quality moisture and instability, you're talking about a downright scary situation for the Arklatex region of the United States. There could potentially be a large swath of damage from Dallas to Memphis.
As for tomorrow: right now SPC has it pegged in a Moderate Risk, but I would not be surprised to see it upgraded to another High Risk. There should be ample low level helicity, and plenty of shear available. Couple that with sufficient instability, and good moisture, and you have another volatile situation. With that said, I feel that Southern and Central Indiana into Southern, Central, North Central, and Eastern Ohio could experience some rather unpleasant weather tomorrow. With the given parameters, I could see a tornado outbreak, with storms forming into a QLCS (quasi-linear convective system), with possible embedded HP supercells.
I will update more later.
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