Ongoing severe weather

A little late to the topic, but I had to finish studying a bit over the weekend! Currently there are several tornado warnings in the Southern Plains, and quite a few storms have already produced tornadoes. These storms are moving extremely fast, but the atmosphere is VERY unstable. NWS launched another weather balloon in Oklahoma City because of the severe weather situation (close to 4000 J/kg of ML CAPE). This morning this area was held in check by the low lying clouds, and with atmospheric warming this afternoon and a progressing Low Pressure system coming out of the rockies; warm, moist air was pushed northward. A dryline developed, and is now about 40-50 miles (rough guess) west of Oklahoma City. The 22Z dewpoints were approaching 70 degrees at Oklahoma City as well. The wind shear could be described as amazing. This enhanced southerly flow thanks to our friend the Low Level Jet, is producing a SSE wind at the surface, and with heights winds turn to the west. The storms that pop, do so quickly, and they become severe warned a very short time afterwards. These storms will tend to be long track supercells because of the "rich" environment, and the tornadoes could be very strong. I want to take a special look at the OKC sounding; the Lifted Index is very unstable, and the lapse rates are steep. As well, look at the amount of positive area on the right side of the environment's temperature. With such a small cap, it doesn't take much to break this cap, and if convergence is strong enough (which it is), then the storms will explode once they rise above that cap. This is the type of day that storm chasers live for!

Little Rock Skew-t

This was from the 0000Z sounding (7pm CDT), can you say explosive thunderstorms!!??

Active Night in Arkansas!!

Here are some radar shots from a confirmed tornadic supercell east of Little Rock, AR. Note the comma shape, and Base Velocities, as well as the Storm Relative Velocity. Its quite and amazing storm! Look at the last picture, of the Base Velocity, note the max wind speeds (124 knots), thats over 142mph. In the first two pictures, just look at the evolution of this tornado, that pinkish hue in the doppler picture is most likely debris associated with this tornado. The the Base Velocity is very impressive!

Possible Conway County Tornado

Almost on the same line as the Pottsville, AR tornado; this supercell developed. I caught it about 5 minutes before the NWS out of Little Rock Tor Warned it. It too has a well defined inflow notch.

Radar Indicated Tornado (Near Pottsville, AR)

Well, things are shaping up for a good set of severe storms this afternoon in Kansas and Nebraska; possibly even Iowa or Missouri. I want to keep a close eye on the dewpoints to see if they progress northward, and if they're high enough. All other "keys" are there for a tornado outbreak. We always like to see this (above) put out by the SPC, as well!

Update for Severe Weather

NWS currently has a hatched area of probability for NE Kansas, SE Nebraska, SW Iowa, and NW Missouri. Instability looks like it will be slightly higher than what I originally thought; couple that with the continued forecast of strong wind shear, and decent low level moisture, we could be looking at a greater possible chance of tornadic supercells. Storms will progress through the evening, but will become more linear with time.

There is a possible chance of severe weather here in Northern IL, but I believe it will be associated more with an advancing cold front, rather than an established dryline. Even though wind shear should still remain strong; I'd tend to say that the storms will be more linear, with wind and hail as the main threat. There could be an isolated tornado if the storms become suface based with isolated cells.

We will see the outcome as we progress towards Friday.