Jeff's Weather

Disheartening

2011-04-27T22:22:00.005-05:00

Today will go down in the record books for tornadoes, and could vault this month to the top of the worst month in regards to severe, ever. Before I write about the outbreak, I want to express my heartfelt sympathy for the people of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, etc. There has been a great loss of life today.

This morning started out with an expected high risk from the SPC. For the Mid-South we had very high forecasts of Bulk Shear, and Storm Relative Helicity values. In the picture that follows (18z Birmingham, AL Sounding), the things that are so noticeable are: significant CAPE, backed LL winds, strong LLJ around 850mb, coupled with a relatively strong jet streak around 400mb, and great moisture. We had values ranging anywhere from 200-500+ m^2/s^2 for SRH, and Bulk Shear above 65 knots. Those two ingredients alone are downright scary. When you add it all together, you have an atomic situation; one which supports large, long track tornadoes. And that is exactly what happened.

The follow radar pictures are associated with some of the Mississippi and Alabame storms, they have the tightest couplets I have ever seen on any supercell. And, every storm which fired was discrete, and every one of them were supercells.

Luckily, the SPC has been great for the whole duration of this event. My hat is off to them! Here is a picture of all the reports:

Very Dangerous setup for 4/26 and 4/27

2011-04-26T14:43:00.003-05:00

Storms have already begun initiation in and near Dallas/Ft. Worth. SPC has progged that area with a High Risk for severe wx. It's with great sympathy that I write this, considering the tornadoes and severe wx that occurred in the region last night. But, if people thought yesterday was bad, today will be worse.

19z surface obs show slight backed winds at the surface, along with dewpoints in the low 70's. There is plenty of instability avalaible, in upwards of 2000 j/kg. The storms are initiating on the instability gradient/Theta-e gradient. These storms went severe in a matter of 5 minutes; and once rooted in the boundary layer, should make a classic right turn. I don't feel that I need to mention the parameters for today, because I will sum them up with one word: "atomic". SRH values are most likely underdone, but I would expect them to approach 600 m^2/s^2, with Effective Bulk Shear at 50+ knots, and with plenty of quality moisture and instability, you're talking about a downright scary situation for the Arklatex region of the United States. There could potentially be a large swath of damage from Dallas to Memphis.

As for tomorrow: right now SPC has it pegged in a Moderate Risk, but I would not be surprised to see it upgraded to another High Risk. There should be ample low level helicity, and plenty of shear available. Couple that with sufficient instability, and good moisture, and you have another volatile situation. With that said, I feel that Southern and Central Indiana into Southern, Central, North Central, and Eastern Ohio could experience some rather unpleasant weather tomorrow. With the given parameters, I could see a tornado outbreak, with storms forming into a QLCS (quasi-linear convective system), with possible embedded HP supercells.

I will update more later.

April 19, 2011 IL Storms

2011-04-20T23:19:00.009-05:00

Yesterday started out in Geneva, IL; where I and a friend met up with two fellow storm chasers. I had a preliminary idea of where I wanted to head, and we confirmed that as we traveled south towards Springfield, IL. We knew where the track of the Sfc-Low was going to be, and with that track, the best backed surface winds were going to be in that vicinity. That meant we had to hang relatively close to the warm front where this enhanced helicity and shear would be. Right off the bat, we knew moisture was not going to be a concern. Sfc dewpoints ranged from the low 60's to low 70's, with a very impressive pool of 60+ dewpoints at 850mb (~1.5km). We decided on Litchfield, IL for a target area. As we drove just south of Springfield, we finally got south of the Warm Front, and that was where our extensive stratus deck finally ended. Temperatures climbed rapidly within the next 30 miles; going from a mere 61 to a high of 78. We sat at McDonalds in Litchfield watching our setup. Around downtown St. Louis a boundary of some sort had set up (moisture boundary!?), and was evident with radar loops. This was one of our main focuses because of it possibly being the cap breaker. Instead storms started initiating ahead of the cold front, close to a triple point. They were WNW of St. Louis. We watched the scans come in on those cells, and quickly decided to head towards Carrolton, IL across the river from a cell that was going "super" quickly as it headed towards Bowling Green, MO. That cell looked beautiful on radar; but it would not hold.

As that cell hit the Mississippi River bluffs on the IL state line, it fell apart. It went from a supercell to what we described as "blobish". We continued to follow the cell, and experienced two Gustnados, but unfortunately, the cell looked to be gusted out, with a forming shelf cloud.

We quickly traversed back towards Carlinville, and noticed that our original player (convergence along that radar viewable boundary) had initiated a supercell. There were a few wall cloud reports coming off the cell as we headed towards it. As we approached, we saw a visible wall cloud and tightening rotation in the low level mesocyclone. And as we headed east on IL-108, that cell developed a small funnel cloud eventually making a brief touchdown. Within seconds, the RFD ramped up on the south side of the storm, and a very low inflow tail developed on the north side of the mesocyclone south of the FFD. The inflow coming into the cell went from mere 20 knot winds to 60+ knot winds in a matter of no time. We got to the junction of I-55 and IL-108 which provided a perfect vantage point for this storm. SSW of the Pioneer seed plant, the storm started to produce a classic cone shaped funnel cloud, with the start of debris showing near the ground as well.

The funnel cloud finally made full contact with the ground, putting up a rather large debris cloud. We were viewing this tornado from ~ 1-1.5 mile(s), and even at that distance it looked large! It became more defined as it moved ENE across I-55. After about a mile or so east of I-55, it finally lifted a bit as it started progressing into an HP Supercell.

We continued to try to get ahead of this storm, but unfortunately we encountered quite a bit of traffic, which slowed us down greatly. Eventually the cells quickly developed into a rather large derecho, moving at an unbelievable pace. There were still embedded supercells within this system, but most of them were dealing with heavy rain wrapped precipitation, thus making it far more dangerous to chase. We eventually took shelter in Greenville, IL off of I-70, and after the line passed, we headed back home.

Here's the Double Derecho!

Update

2011-03-25T22:56:00.002-05:00

I guess I should keep closer tabs on my blog. It always seems to happen that I get so distracted by school, the blog becomes the last thing on my mind.

Just to update the weather synopsis for the plains, and midwest, and east coast: Around a week ago, we were all blessed with an early taste of spring. But, as most weather in March, it was short lived. Right now, we are dealing with a Greenland Block, or so it seems like that. Although the AO really hasn't trended quite as negative as we have seen over the winter, it certainly has trended down towards neutral/0. The NAO has trended negative, but if we wanted to try and forecast using teleconnections, there seems to be a trend in this block letting up a bit. While this is occurring, there is a rather strong High Pressure sitting near Hudson Bay in Canada. This is also leading to ENE flow, which is keeping the weather rather cold for this time of the year. This all adds up to the potential for an early week snowstorm somewhere in the midwest. Fortunately, there are also a few factors which are really important when it comes to snow this time of the year. Given that the ground temperatures have been at or above freezing for a better part of a month or longer, and the sun's inclination angle is increasing every day for the Northern Hemisphere; timing would be very critical in determining whether accumulating snow would occur for much of Northern Illinois. With this increased energy, daytime temperatures are likely to not be conducive of heavy snow accumulation. Given this, snow would need to occur overnight to accumulate in large quantities.

As for severe weather: We actually have had a few mini outbreaks, but because the quality of moisture has not been good, the severe weather has been rather minuscule. It is a tad too early to get good moisture transport northward; but as we saw on this past Tuesday, it doesn't take much moisture to ignite something. This past Tuesday, we had a modest shortwave set up in E Nebraska. There was a trailing cold front, and warm front setup across Southern Iowa. The one main concern with this system was the moisture, and the cloud cover. Early morning cloud cover, is ok, but if it continues to last into the day, much of the possible instability is wasted. Luckily, during the mid morning, a portion of drier air had infiltrated an area in NE Kansas into SW Iowa as well as SE Nebraska. This drier air was due to the dry line that had setup. Unfortunate, the winds were veering into the dry line, which really eliminated any sort of activity in that area. So, that left the Warm Front. In the vicinity of the warm front, the Wind Shear was maximized, and there was sufficient instability and moisture to initiate storms in E Nebraska (near Omaha). There were several tornado reports in the area of Omaha, and the threat continued into Iowa where some clearing in Southern Iowa had helped destabilize the environment. With the Warm Front pushing a little north (around Des Moines), there was also a slight increase in moisture. Storms continued to fire across SW Iowa, and really were rooted there due to the Warm Front. Several pictures of the storm structure, as well as my radar feed; showed some shallow supercells, with great rotation due to that presence of the Warm Front and the Wind Shear associated with it. The storms went much more Linear as they approached Des Moines, although they still had embedded supercells with abundant rotation. As that line headed eastward, it quickly weakened due to the cold air it encountered at the surface. Other than this outbreak, and a few other small ones; its been a little quiet. And, don't expect it to get any better with the current pattern.

That should cover it for now. And I'll do my best to pop in every now and then.

Fall 2010

2010-08-27T19:01:00.002-05:00

School once again has started, and work is subsiding just a bit. I am excited about this Fall Semester at NIU. I get to do some Research for Hintzsche Fertilizer, Inc. which is based out of Maple Park, IL. I really like how Met 431 brings a real life situation into play, and Dr. Changnon gives a chance to really run with it.

Besides that, I'll be doing some research on year to year weather patterns (Synoptically), and ENSO; to see how they change the Mesoscale Weather (severe, snowstorms, etc.). I find it quite that the synoptic events really seem to control the type of weather that the Continental U.S receives.

Besides this, the weather here in Chicago has been pleasant. Right now, we're sitting under a large ridge of high pressure after the latest cold front came through. We have actually had seasonable temperatures for the past few days, in comparison to the warmer than average temperatures we had for most of the summer. But, its to be expected that the temperatures will increase, as will the moisture as the High moves off to the east, and we will soon get a Southerly wind component. I wouldn't expect anything weather wise, till the middle of next week, or so.

Its been a while!

2010-07-06T21:42:00.005-05:00

Its been a while since I have posted anything to my blog, so I figure I would throw up some pictures from tonight as a weak Bow Echo passed near my house in Yorkville. It had a nice looking shelf cloud associated with it, so I took full advantage of the photo opportunities.

Ongoing severe weather

2010-05-10T17:24:00.002-05:00

A little late to the topic, but I had to finish studying a bit over the weekend! Currently there are several tornado warnings in the Southern Plains, and quite a few storms have already produced tornadoes. These storms are moving extremely fast, but the atmosphere is VERY unstable. NWS launched another weather balloon in Oklahoma City because of the severe weather situation (close to 4000 J/kg of ML CAPE). This morning this area was held in check by the low lying clouds, and with atmospheric warming this afternoon and a progressing Low Pressure system coming out of the rockies; warm, moist air was pushed northward. A dryline developed, and is now about 40-50 miles (rough guess) west of Oklahoma City. The 22Z dewpoints were approaching 70 degrees at Oklahoma City as well. The wind shear could be described as amazing. This enhanced southerly flow thanks to our friend the Low Level Jet, is producing a SSE wind at the surface, and with heights winds turn to the west. The storms that pop, do so quickly, and they become severe warned a very short time afterwards. These storms will tend to be long track supercells because of the "rich" environment, and the tornadoes could be very strong. I want to take a special look at the OKC sounding; the Lifted Index is very unstable, and the lapse rates are steep. As well, look at the amount of positive area on the right side of the environment's temperature. With such a small cap, it doesn't take much to break this cap, and if convergence is strong enough (which it is), then the storms will explode once they rise above that cap. This is the type of day that storm chasers live for!

Little Rock Skew-t

2010-04-30T22:13:00.002-05:00

This was from the 0000Z sounding (7pm CDT), can you say explosive thunderstorms!!??

Active Night in Arkansas!!

2010-04-30T21:16:00.007-05:00

Here are some radar shots from a confirmed tornadic supercell east of Little Rock, AR. Note the comma shape, and Base Velocities, as well as the Storm Relative Velocity. Its quite and amazing storm! Look at the last picture, of the Base Velocity, note the max wind speeds (124 knots), thats over 142mph. In the first two pictures, just look at the evolution of this tornado, that pinkish hue in the doppler picture is most likely debris associated with this tornado. The the Base Velocity is very impressive!

Possible Conway County Tornado

2010-04-30T20:09:00.003-05:00

Almost on the same line as the Pottsville, AR tornado; this supercell developed. I caught it about 5 minutes before the NWS out of Little Rock Tor Warned it. It too has a well defined inflow notch.

Radar Indicated Tornado (Near Pottsville, AR)

2010-04-30T19:27:00.001-05:00

2010-04-29T07:11:00.003-05:00

Well, things are shaping up for a good set of severe storms this afternoon in Kansas and Nebraska; possibly even Iowa or Missouri. I want to keep a close eye on the dewpoints to see if they progress northward, and if they're high enough. All other "keys" are there for a tornado outbreak. We always like to see this (above) put out by the SPC, as well!

Update for Severe Weather

2010-04-28T15:04:00.002-05:00

NWS currently has a hatched area of probability for NE Kansas, SE Nebraska, SW Iowa, and NW Missouri. Instability looks like it will be slightly higher than what I originally thought; couple that with the continued forecast of strong wind shear, and decent low level moisture, we could be looking at a greater possible chance of tornadic supercells. Storms will progress through the evening, but will become more linear with time.

There is a possible chance of severe weather here in Northern IL, but I believe it will be associated more with an advancing cold front, rather than an established dryline. Even though wind shear should still remain strong; I'd tend to say that the storms will be more linear, with wind and hail as the main threat. There could be an isolated tornado if the storms become suface based with isolated cells.

We will see the outcome as we progress towards Friday.

Possible Severe Weather 4/30

2010-04-28T00:00:00.002-05:00

Keep a close eye on current Low Pressure system centered in the Northwest U.S. With this system moving slowly into the Plains, I hope to see a return of moisture to the Central U.S. If low level moisture can work its way north; Ensembles and WRF would indicate possible tornadic supercells. ML Cape values from 1000 J/kg-1500 J/kg are projected across Central-Eastern Kansas, even into SE Nebraska. With very good bulk shear in that area, and a small cap, which will increase instability; storms that fire would develop fast. Dewpoints are projected to be in the low 60's as well. I want to lean towards the possibility of good surface moisture, but even at this time, that would only be a best "possible" scenario. Theoretically, the primary issues that would arrise from this convection would be strong winds and hail, if the surface moisture isn't sufficient enough for tornado development. Not only is the moisture a concern, but a deep Boundary Layer is expected to be present as well. Those two combined could very well limit the threat of tornadoes with these storms.

No matter what, I sure do wish I was chasing; instead of preparing for Finals.

2010-04-27T23:26:00.004-05:00

I was in Carbondale, IL this past weekend (visiting the better half), and was surrounded by moderatedly severe weather. I am in the process of getting my new laptop, so unfortunately, I didn't have access to GR Level yet. But, I kept close tabs on the developing situation in Yazoo City, MS, as well as developing storms near the Carbondale area. I was treated with a nice cell, with a pronounced Bow Echo during the mid-afternoon on Saturday, as the shortwave had ejected from the SW U.S. ahead of the main Low Pressure system. With good low level moisture in place in the South, and very favorable instability, as well good wind shear, everything seemed in place for a tornado outbreak in the south, and it sure didn't disappoint. It was unfortunate that the limited severe weather that we have had this year, that the best day had to take so many lives in Mississippi.

On my way home Sunday afternoon, I was driving West on IL-24, outside of Forrest, IL. I was intrigued by what looked to be a little bit of forcing/lift to the west of me. Without having access to any type of Visible Satellite, or Radar; I would tend to say that the small towers that were going up was done by an outflow boundary/cold air boundary left over as remnants of the exiting Low Pressure system. I noticed a pronounced wind shift to the NE, and a drop in temperature with that Cold Air Advection. The south side of the small cumulo formed clouds were nicely lit by the sun that was breaking through the higher deck of stratiformed clouds.